Howard Marks Just Went Big on Energy — And Made a Wild Bet Against the S&P

TL;DR: TODAY’S EDITION

• Howard Marks, co-founder of Oaktree Capital, just doubled down on energy and ramped up a $630M S&P 500 put position (+200%).

• Portfolio leans hard into energy, tankers, gold, and other hard assets that can shine in turbulent markets.

• Copying Oaktree beats the S&P in choppy cycles, but lags in euphoric bull runs.

• Marks’s playbook: defend first, then attack when assets get cheap — the real question is, will you be ready when he flips the switch?

OAKTREE CAPITAL

Who Is Howard Marks?

If Warren Buffett is the kindly grandpa of value investing, Howard Marks is the cool uncle who writes you long, razor-sharp letters about how not to blow up your portfolio.

Co-founder of Oaktree Capital Management, Marks oversees roughly $190 billion AUM, specializing in credit, distressed debt, and situations where others are running for the exits. His Memos are devoured by Wall Street pros, sovereign wealth funds, and yes — even Buffett himself.

If most of Wall Street is still partying like it’s 2021, Howard Marks is quietly stocking the fallout shelter.

In Oaktree’s latest 13F, the legendary investor doubled a massive $630M S&P 500 put position, kept the portfolio heavy on energy, and trimmed a few cyclical plays. It’s classic Marks — playing defense while positioning for the kind of dislocation that can create generational buying opportunities.

Because here’s the thing: he’s not just hiding in cash. He’s loaded up on tankers, oil royalties, gold, and hard assets that could surge if the market turns volatile. The S&P put protects the downside; the commodity plays give him the ammo to go on offense when the dust settles.

Let’s break down what he’s holding — and why he might be bracing for a very different market than the one we’ve had for the last two years.

Q2 2025: Big Shifts in the Portfolio

The latest 13F shows a clear tilt toward energy, commodities, and macro hedges, plus one eyebrow-raising bet: a massive S&P 500 put position.

Top 10 Holdings & Quarter Moves:

1. Torm plc (TRMD) – 11.7% of portfolio — tanker shipping stalwart, unchanged.

2. SPY (Put Options) – 10.8% — a massive increase (+200%) on S&P put options. Protective or bearish macro signal.

3. Expand Energy Corp (EXE) – 10.2% — Trimming the main stake (~8%) while opening a small new position.

4. Garrett Motion (GTX) – 6.7% — trimmed ~16%, likely profit-taking.

5. Sitio Royalties (STR) – 4.1% — slight bump for royalty income in energy.

6. AngloGold Ashanti (AU) – 3.9% — reduced ~9.5%, locking gains in gold.

7. Indivior plc (INDV) – 2.8% — consistent healthcare/specialized exposure.

8. Sunopta (STKL) – 2.1% — minor stake in specialty foods.

9. Runway Growth Finance (RWAY) – 1.8% — trimmed ~9%, speculative credit exposure.

10. Cemex (CX) – 1.8% — down ~23%, reducing materials exposure.

Biggest themes: Energy-heavy positions, strategic reductions in cyclical names, and a bold S&P-wide hedge — all pointing to Marks preparing for a very different market than the one we’ve had the last two years.

Why Marks Might Be Making These Moves

Howard Marks has built his career on zigging when the market zags — and this quarter is textbook Marks. Doubling his S&P 500 put position suggests he sees risks building under the surface of the index. It’s not necessarily a bet that the market will collapse tomorrow, but rather a hedge against what he views as stretched valuations, narrow market leadership, and rising macro uncertainty (think sticky inflation, higher-for-longer interest rates, and geopolitical rumblings).

At the same time, the heavy tilt toward energy, shipping, and commodities fits his long-standing belief that cyclical, real-asset plays can be great insurance in turbulent environments. Tanker giant Torm benefits from disrupted global shipping routes and tight supply. Sitio Royalties and Expand Energy offer steady cash flows and upside if oil prices spike. AngloGold Ashanti adds a gold hedge — historically a safe haven in periods of market stress or inflation anxiety.

Marks may be positioning Oaktree for a scenario where the broader market stumbles, but select “hard asset” plays and cash-generating businesses keep compounding. In other words: protect the downside through hedges, and own the kinds of assets that get scarce — and more valuable — when things break.

Would Copying Oaktree Have Made You Money?

Here’s how copying the top holdings would’ve performed:

In bull upswings, Oaktree lags. Over long cycles or choppy markets, its contrarian defense pays off.

Takeaway

Howard Marks isn’t chasing the same AI-driven mega-cap rally everyone else is. He’s building a portfolio that can survive — and thrive — if the market’s narrow leadership cracks. The doubled S&P 500 put position is his insurance policy; the energy, shipping, and gold bets are his potential payoff if turbulence hits.

It’s a playbook that has worked for him before: protect the downside, then step in aggressively when assets get cheap. But here’s the challenge for investors — playing defense can save you, yet the real art is knowing when to flip the switch to offense again.

Right now, Marks seems convinced the market’s risk/reward balance demands caution. The question is: when the next dislocation comes, will you be ready to go on the attack like he will?

Want to See Where Winners Are Betting Right Now?

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