Is David Tepper Betting on a Crash?

TL;DR: TODAY’S EDITION

• David Tepper loaded up on S&P 500 Fossil Fuel Reserves Free ETF (SPYX) and Apple puts — and slashed most of his other holdings.

• The only stocks he increased? Uber, Meta, and Alphabet.

• Historically, copying his stock picks only worked well in specific periods (2003–2006, 2020–2023).

• Historically, copying his portfolio has been hit-or-miss — but when he’s right, he’s very right.

APPALOOSA

When Tepper Moves, Markets Pay Attention

David Tepper doesn’t love the spotlight. But every quarter, he’s forced to reveal his cards — at least the ones the SEC can see.

And in Q1 2025, those cards told a clear story: risk off.

🔻 He slashed nearly every core position

💣 He opened a massive $2.5B put position on the SPYX ETF — a fossil-fuel-free version of the S&P

🍏 He shorted Apple

🚖 And then quietly doubled down on Uber

This isn’t just bearishness. This might be climate-aligned macro positioning — or a sharp bet against ESG-heavy overperformance.

🧠 Appaloosa 101: Why Tepper Matters

Appaloosa Management is one of the most successful hedge funds of the last 30 years. Founded by David Tepper, it earned its rep by thriving in chaos — distressed debt, crisis-era bets, and sharp macro calls.

Tepper isn’t just a trader. He’s a pattern reader.

When his portfolio flips this hard, it’s worth investigating.

📦 What’s in Tepper’s Portfolio? (Q1 2025)

Here’s what Appaloosa’s 13F filings show:

His #1 position by far is a massive put on SPYX — the S&P 500 Fossil Fuel Reserves Free ETF — worth $2.5 billion. That’s not a hedge — that’s a bold macro call.

🍏 He also initiated a fresh put on Apple, worth $278 million, signaling concern over one of tech’s most crowded trades.

📉 Beyond that, he reduced nearly everything else:

• Alibaba, down –22%

• JD.com, down –23%

• PDD, down –18%

• Amazon, Vistra, all trimmed

But he didn’t close the book completely. Three names got more love:

✅ Meta: Increased by +12%

✅ Alphabet: Increased by +7%

✅ Uber: Doubled his stake (+113%) — it’s now a Top 10 holding and aligns with Bill Ackman’s highest-conviction bet

🧠 What does it all mean?

This isn’t random tinkering. It’s a decisive pivot:

• Less China

• Less consumer discretionary

• Less broad tech exposure

• More selective, U.S.-centric bets with asymmetric upside (Uber, Meta, Alphabet)

It’s a portfolio that wants to defend, but still optionally strike — and that combination says a lot about how Tepper sees the next few quarters playing out.

💣 Why SPYX? Why Now?

Let’s be clear: SPYX isn’t the S&P 500 itself. It’s an S&P 500 minus fossil fuel reserves — i.e., it strips out Exxon, Chevron, etc.

So what’s Tepper doing betting against that?

Possibilities:

• He sees energy outperforming — so the fossil-free version underperforms

• He expects a rotation out of ESG themes and back into hard assets

• He’s found relative value in traditional energy names — and this is a hedge

Whatever the thesis, this is a $2.5 billion statement.

📉 Does Copying Tepper Work?

We backtested the results of copying his top long holdings, rebalanced quarterly.

Here’s what we found:

🟢 Strong Years:

• 2003–2006: +120%, +48%, +20%, +32%

• 2009: +71% post-crisis

• 2023: +56% vs. S&P’s +26%

🔴 Weak Stretches:

• 2016–2022: Mostly underperformed

• 2022: –21.9% vs. S&P –18.1%

• Even the GOATs have rough patches.

Verdict: Not a strategy to blindly follow — but when Tepper nails it, he really nails it.

🚗 UBER: The One Name He Doubled Down On

Tepper doubled his stake in Uber this quarter — making it one of the few bright spots in his book.

He’s not alone: Bill Ackman also holds Uber as his #1 position (see article).

Why the love?

• Consistent profitability (finally!)

• Massive network moat across mobility, delivery, freight

• Optionality in autonomy, logistics, and fintech

In a defensive portfolio, Uber feels like a high-conviction swing.

📌 The Takeaway

This isn’t a blanket market short. Tepper’s betting on what breaks, not just that everything will.

• SPYX puts suggest a sector view — maybe traditional energy rebounds, ESG stumbles

• And Uber, Meta, and Alphabet? They’re still getting love

Is this risk-off? Yes.

Is it a blanket crash call? Not quite.

Is it nuanced macro positioning from one of the best? 100%.

🫶 BE THE FRIEND WITH THE GOOD TIPS

Know someone always wondering, “Which stock should I buy next?” Share this article with them! It’s a simple way to start investing like the pros — no need to figure it all out yourself when Smart Money’s already done the work. They’ll thank you later.

💬 I’D LOVE TO HEAR FROM YOU

To respond to this newsletter, just hit reply. I love getting replies, and read them all.

If you received this email from a friend, and would like to subscribe, please go here.

🚀 READY TO INVEST SMARTER?

Whenever you’re ready to take it up a notch, Smart Money Premium gives you access to the top 20 investors’ portfolios, backtested over 3, 5, and 7 years for you to copy.

To the Investor Top-Lists

DISCLAIMER

Smart Money is a publisher of financial information, not an investment advisor. The content provided by Smart Money is for informational purposes only and is not personalized or tailored to the needs of any particular recipient. While efforts are made to ensure accuracy, Smart Money does not guarantee the completeness or reliability of the information on this page. All statements and expressions reflect the opinion of the author or a paid advertiser.

The information contained on this website is not, and should not be construed as, investment advice. It does not purport to express any opinion as to the price at which the securities of any company may trade at any time. The information and opinions provided should not be taken as specific advice on the merits of any investment decision. Investors should conduct their own research and make decisions based on their individual review of publicly available information. Smart Money does not provide individualized investment advice, and investors should seek professional guidance based on their own circumstances before making investment decisions.

No statement or opinion herein constitutes an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments mentioned.

Smart Money accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of the information provided.