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  • Michael Burry called the Housing Crash. Now He’s Calling Another.

Michael Burry called the Housing Crash. Now He’s Calling Another.

He sold everything, bought puts on last quarter’s favorites, and left one lonely long. Here’s what it means (or doesn’t).

May 21, 2025

Weekly Recap

  • The market posted slight gains last week (S&P 500 up 0.6% since our last edition) and Bitcoin reached a new all-time high of $106,000 USD during the week (we covered Bitcoin in last week’s edition on Horizn Kinetics)

  • Carvana ($CVNA) is on a run: It’s now up +54,4% (as of May 20th) since our April 18th coverage under General Equity Holdings. (original post)

  • Sharkninja ($SN) has climbed +34,7% (as of May 20th) since our April 15th coverage under Abrams Bison Investments. (original post)

TL;DR

  • Burry’s new 13F shows one lonely stock and a pile of puts.

  • He’s now shorting companies he owned just months ago.

  • Is he early? Wrong? Or calling the next Big Short 2.0?

  • We looked at his full portfolio, his crash prediction track record, and what investors should actually take away from it.

 

Michael Burry just did it again: He sold everything.

Left one long position. And loaded up on puts — lots of them.

The man who called the housing collapse is now betting heavily on another crash.

But here’s the real question:

Should anyone still listen?

Let’s dig into his new portfolio, his prediction history, and what it all really means.

What’s in Burry’s Portfolio Now?

According to his Q1 2025 13F:

He now holds just one long stock:

  • Estée Lauder (EL) → 6.6% of his portfolio

Everything else?

📉 Put options.

His current portfolio:

He’s shorting the same names he was long just last quarter. It’s not just a hedge — it’s a full-blown flip.

Has He Been Right Before?

Short answer: Yes — once.

Long answer: Usually not.

After his famous 2008 call, Burry’s track record of predictions looks like this:

Year

Prediction

Outcome

2017

Global meltdown / WW3

❌ Market up +93%

2019

Index funds = next CDO

❌ S&P +50%

2020

Tesla = ridiculous bubble

❌ Continued rally

2021

Meme stocks = crash coming

❌ Market up +11%

2021

Bitcoin = bubble

✅ Dropped –28% in 3 months

He’s been right in spirit, wrong on timing — and often on scale.

But When He’s Right…

Burry’s 2008 short wasn’t just right — it was career-making.

And that’s the trap: The market rewards the one successful call more than the 10 that miss.

99 bad predictions + 1 historic win = legend status.

So when he bets on disaster again, people pay attention. Even if the hit rate isn’t great.

What Can You Actually Learn from This?

  • Burry is brilliant, but not infallible

  • His crash calls are often early or wrong, but never random

Michael Burry may be loading up for another Big Short.

But history says: he’s far better at sounding alarms than timing explosions.

So should you follow him?

Only if you’re ready to be early, uncomfortable, and alone.

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