Monish Pabrai Made 108% in 2023. Now He’s Down Bad.

TL;DR: TODAY’S EDITION

• Monish Pabrai is one of the most focused investors out there — cloning Buffett, but with fewer stocks and bolder bets.

• His hedge fund, Dalal Street, has a 100% concentration in just four stocks.

• In 2023, copying him would’ve delivered massive alpha (+109%). But 2024/25? A bloodbath.

• We looked into what he’s holding now — and whether it makes sense to follow him.

MONISH PABRAI

🧠 Who Is Monish Pabrai?

A Buffett disciple. A deep-value purist.

A man who famously paid $650,000 to have lunch with Warren Buffett — and then decided to clone his investing style.

Pabrai runs Dalal Street LLC, a hedge fund managing just over $1.1 billion in assets. What makes him different? Focus. Extreme focus.

His entire portfolio is made up of just four stocks — and it’s always been this way. No index hugging. No diversifying to sleep at night. Just a handful of ultra-high-conviction bets.

📦 What’s in His Portfolio Right Now?

As of Q1 2025, here’s what Monish Pabrai holds — and why:

1. Warrior Met Coal (HCC) – 36.6%

An Alabama-based metallurgical coal producer.

HCC supplies the kind of coal used in steelmaking — not power generation — and gushes free cash flow when prices spike. Pabrai’s bet here is classic deep value: a cyclical cash cow in a hated sector.

2. Valaris (VAL) – 23.9%

New position. Offshore oil rigs.

Valaris operates drilling fleets across the globe. Offshore rigs were left for dead post-2015, but rising oil prices and supply shortfalls have brought them back. Pabrai sees upside in assets no one else wants to touch.

3. Alpha Metallurgical Resources (AMR) – 22.1%

Another met coal producer.

Pabrai has trimmed his position slightly, but it’s still a pillar of the portfolio. AMR had a wild run recently — massive earnings, but also wild volatility. It fits the theme: underpriced, dirty, overlooked.

4. Noble Corp (NE) – 17.4%

Yet another fresh oil bet.

Noble operates high-spec offshore rigs — the kind needed for deepwater projects. It’s a leveraged play on a rebound in offshore drilling, and a direct cousin to Valaris in terms of risk and reward.

🛢️ In short: Pabrai is all-in on fossil-fueled deep value. Oil, coal, and zero tech.

📊 The Performance: Up, Down, and All Over the Place

If you think “value investing” means smooth returns — think again. Pabrai’s track record is pure volatility.

📈 2023: +108.7% — one of the best years of any investor we tracked

📉 2024: –22.9%

📉 2025 YTD: –21.9%

And this isn’t new.

Between 2005 and 2025, Pabrai beat the S&P in 9 of 21 years — but when he loses, he really loses. 2008, 2015, 2022… all saw 30–50% drawdowns.

You don’t follow Monish Pabrai for safety. You follow him if you want all-or-nothing bets with occasional monster years.

⚖️ Should You Copy Him?

It depends on your pain tolerance.

✅ Pros:

• Huge upside in years like 2023

• Focused, high-conviction investing

• Pabrai has a track record of spotting deep value before the crowd

❌ Cons:

• Wild volatility — 40%+ swings aren’t rare

• Heavy exposure to cyclical energy & materials

• Tough to hold psychologically during multi-year drawdowns

If you had cloned him from 2005 to today, you’d have beaten the market in some years… but felt like a genius one year and a fool the next.

📈 Want More Predictable Outperformance?

Monish Pabrai is fascinating. But he’s not for everyone.

If you’re looking for less drama, more data-backed winners, SmartMoney Premium helps you:

• See the Top 20 most consistent investors over 3, 5, and 7 years

• Copy their current portfolios — updated quarterly

• Backtest before you invest

No guesswork. No stress. Just quiet compounding.

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