This $6bn Activist Billionaire Went All-In on Steel and Utilities

TL;DR: TODAY’S EDITION

• Daniel Loeb’s Third Point is one of the most aggressive, high-conviction hedge funds out there

• He’s currently betting big on steel, biotech, utilities, and a handful of high-beta growth names

• But 2025 hasn’t been kind: his portfolio is down –3.4% YTD, while the S&P is up +6.1%

• We ran a 15-year backtest of copying Loeb’s top 10 holdings — and the results are a mixed bag

DAN LOEB

Who is Daniel Loeb?

Daniel Loeb isn’t just a hedge fund manager — he’s an activist juggernaut.

He built Third Point into a ~$6B vehicle that doesn’t just buy stock — it changes companies. Loeb has pushed out CEOs, broken up conglomerates, and agitated for buybacks and spin-offs.

He doesn’t buy and hope — he buys and shakes things up.

But in recent years, performance hasn’t always matched his headlines.

🔍 So, What’s He Holding Right Now?

Here’s what’s inside Third Point’s Q1 2025 portfolio — and why it matters:

⚡ PG&E Corp (PCG) – 12.7% of the portfolio

Loeb’s biggest bet right now is on California-based utility PG&E — a name that’s gone from disaster headline to deep-value turnaround.

🏗️ U.S. Steel (X) – 7.7%

He added +238% to this stake — a bold move. It’s now his second-biggest position. Likely a macro call on industrial demand or an M&A angle. A very “Loeb” style distressed value play.

🛒 Amazon (AMZN) – 6.4%

Still a core holding, though he trimmed ~32% last quarter. Possibly rebalancing after growth’s rebound in 2024. Amazon gives him stable mega-cap exposure.

🇹🇼 Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – 4.3%

A passive hold this quarter, but a strong play on AI, chip supply, and geopolitical optionality. He’s been in it since Q2 2023 — not early, but not late either.

🎟️ Live Nation (LYV) – 4.0%

Loeb added +22% this quarter. The ultimate revenge travel + entertainment stock. He might be betting on continued pricing power and elevated margins.

🔌 Telephone & Data Systems (TDS) – 3.8%

A utility stock with a tech-y twist. He added 13% last quarter. Not flashy, but possibly a dividend + restructuring play.

🏗️ CRH plc (CRH) – 3.4%

Europe-based building materials firm. Infrastructure + inflation hedge. Flat this quarter — but could be part of a broader rotation into real assets.

🏢 Brookfield (BN) – 3.2%

Cut by ~15%, but still notable. Brookfield is one of the biggest players in global infrastructure and real estate. This could be a longer-term “alternative assets” exposure.

🧴 Kenvue (KVUE) – 3.1%

A new position. This is the J&J consumer health spin-off — think Band-Aid, Tylenol, Listerine. Loeb might be betting on cost cuts and brand monetization.

🎰 Flutter Entertainment (FLUT) – 3.1%

An online sports betting giant, especially in the UK and US. A niche but fast-growing segment. Loeb added 11.5% in Q1.

📈 What If You’d Copied Him?

We backtested a strategy where you simply replicate Loeb’s top 10 positions every quarter.

Here’s what that would’ve returned compared to the S&P 500:

Net result: Loeb’s strategy can absolutely crush it… but only sometimes.

Over the past 5 years, he’s underperformed the S&P in 4 of them.

🧩 Why Are His Returns So Volatile?

Because he’s not trying to track the market — he’s trying to beat it with bold moves:

• 🏭 Going heavy into steel ($X), materials, and utilities

• 🔬 Holding concentrated biotech bets like Natera and Teva

• 🛠️ Taking activist-style positions where he can influence the outcome

• 🔄 Rebalancing quarterly with sometimes huge moves (like +238% in $X)

It’s high-conviction, high-volatility investing — and it’s not for the faint of heart.

🧠 So… Should You Follow Him?

If you’re looking for the next 10x stock and are willing to stomach a few –30% drawdowns?

Sure, keep an eye on Loeb.

But if you’re chasing consistent outperformance? Copying him blindly probably won’t work.

The recent data shows: his hits are big, but his misses are loud.

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• Their current top holdings

• Their performance vs. the S&P

• Who’s worth copying right now

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