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- Would You Have Beaten the Market by Copying Warren Buffett? We Ran the Numbers
Would You Have Beaten the Market by Copying Warren Buffett? We Ran the Numbers
Copying the GOAT sounds smart... until you see what really outperformed.
TL;DR
Warren Buffett just announced he’ll step down as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway
His stock picks are legendary — but do they actually outperform?
We backtested a portfolio that mimics his Top 10 13F holdings, weighted by allocation.
Then we compared it to the S&P 500 and to Berkshire Hathaway stock.
Short answer: Copying him only worked sometimes — and Berkshire crushed both.
Every investor has asked themselves this at least once:
What if I just copied Buffett?
He’s one of the most respected stock pickers of all time. Some of the world’s richest people hand him their capital. He’s patient, independent, long-term focused.
So… what happens if you mirror his top 10 stocks?
We backtested it across 3, 5, 7, and 10 years.
Then compared it to just buying Berkshire Hathaway… and to sitting tight in the S&P 500.
The results? Not what you’d expect.
What Does Warren Buffett Own Right Now?
We pulled Buffett’s latest 13F (2024/12/31):
His portfolio is:
Highly concentrated
Still dominated by Apple, despite selling some
Top 10 = ~90% of his entire portfolio
Top 5 today:
Apple (AAPL)
American Express (AXP)
Bank of America (BAC)
Coca-Cola (KO)
Chevron (CVX)
Worth noting: he cut BAC by 15%, but the stock rose, so its weight stayed stable.
What If You’d Copied His Top Picks?
We built a backtest:
Portfolio: Top 10 Buffett picks from each 13F
Weighting: Based on disclosed allocations
Timeframe: 01.01.2015 to 28.04.2025
Rebalanced quarterly
Here’s what you’d have made vs. the S&P:
Period | Warren Buffett Replication | S&P 500 TR | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|
YTD | -8.9% | -5.7% | -3.2% |
3 Year | 24.7% | 40.0% | -15.3% |
5 Year | 119.3% | 104.9% | 14.4% |
7 Year | 134.7% | 134.5% | 0.2% |
10 Year | 162.0% | 217.0% | -55.0% |
Key takeaways:
Copying Buffett outperformed only on a 5-year horizon
Long-term and short-term? S&P wins
Volatility: roughly the same
Extreme concentration risk — Apple made up over 50% at peak in 2023
What About Just Buying Berkshire Hathaway?
Instead of mimicking his public picks, what if you just bought Berkshire (BRK.B)?
Same test. Here’s the result:
Source: Morningstar.com
Period | Berkshire | Warren Buffett Replication | S&P 500 TR |
|---|---|---|---|
YTD | 17.1% | -8.9% | -5.7% |
3 Year | 60.3% | 24.7% | 40.0% |
5 Year | 183.7% | 119.3% | 104.9% |
7 Year | 174.1% | 134.7% | 134.5% |
10 Year | 272.5% | 162.0% | 217.0% |
Clear winner: Berkshire.
Why?
Access to private businesses (Geico, BNSF, Dairy Queen, etc.)
Buffett allocates capital directly — not just via public stocks
Smoother returns, less concentrated
More defensive during downturns
So Should You Copy Buffett?
Only if you really like Apple. And single-stock risk. Copying his top picks works sometimes — but not consistently.
You’re basically buying a tech-heavy, under-diversified portfolio with zero insight into private holdings or cash positions.
Meanwhile, Berkshire is:
More diversified
Lower downside
Still massively Buffett-led
Outperformed both the S&P and the copycat strategy
Warren Buffett didn’t get rich by copying anyone. And as it turns out, copying him isn’t always the move either.
If you believe in Buffett’s philosophy, the smarter way to follow him is:
→ Don’t mimic.
→ Buy the machine.
Berkshire Hathaway has been the better bet — across nearly every time horizon.
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